10.2190/41LG-DKYC-5QK6-DA9E 41LGDKYC5QK6DA9E 169 THE DETERMINANTS OF UNION ELECTION SUCCESS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR: AN INTERSTATE ANALYSIS 169 181 20031029 20031029 20031029 20031029 41LGDKYC5QK6DA9E.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=41LGDKYC5QK6DA9E 2 KEVIN M. O'BRIEN Bradley University, Peoria, Illinois A large body of literature exists on the determinants of union election success in the private sector but the only extensive study for the public sector is that by Bronfenbrenner and Juravich [1]. They found that increased bargaining unit size and a higher state unemployment rate both decreased the probability of a union winning a certification election. This study extends the public sector literature by including a number of election determinants not used in the previous study. The new explanatory variables are the existence of a single state bargaining law, the percentage of unions with an AFL-CIO affiliation, voter turnout, and the presence of multiple unions on the ballot. This study also includes an alternative measure of union election success: the percentage of votes received by the winning union. One of the new variables, higher voter turnout, increased the percentage of union election wins in a state while a single state bargaining law, AFL-CIO affiliation, and higher voter turnout increased the percentage of votes of the winning union. It was also found that a higher public sector unionization rate and the presence of a right-to-work law in a state decreased both measures of union election success. The results were based on data for states that had certification elections in 1991 and 1992. B. T. Hirsch and D. A. Macpherson, Union Membership and Earnings Data Book 1993, The Bureau of National Affairs, Washington, D.C., 1994. National Right To Work Legal Defense Foundation, Issue Paper: Employees in Right to Work States, http://www. nrtw.org/a/rtwempl.htm, 10/02/01. K. Schneider, Public Employees Bargain for Excellence: A Compendium of State Public Labor Relations Laws, AFL-CIO, Washington, D.C., 1993. W. N. Cooke, Determinants of the Outcomes of Union Certification Elections, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 36, pp. 402-414, April 1983. T. A. Kochan, How American Workers View Labor Unions, Monthly Labor Review, 102, pp. 23-31, April 1979. J. Fiorito, D. G. Gallagher, and C. R. Geer, Determinants of Unionism: A Review of the Literature, in Research in Personnel and Human Resources Management, JAI Press, pp. 269-306, 1986. H. G. Heneman and M. Sandver, Predicting the Outcomes of Union Certification Elections: A Review of the Literature, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 36, pp. 537-549, April 1983. C. Scott, A. Seers, and R. Culpepper, Determinants of Union Election Outcomes in the Non-Hospital Health Care Industry, Journal of Labor Research, 17:4, pp. 701-716, 1996. J. Krislov, Union Organizing in New Units, 1955-1966, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 21, pp. 31-39, August 1967. M. Roomkin and H. A. Juris, Unions in the Traditional Sectors: The Mid-Life Passage of the Labor Movement, in Proceedings of the Thirty-First Annual Meeting, Industrial Relations Research Association, Madison, Wisconsin, pp. 212222, 1979. B. E. Becker and R. U. Miller, Patterns and Determinants of Union Growth in the Hospital Industry, Journal of Labor Research, 2:4, pp. 309-328, 1981. J. T. Delaney, Union Success in Hospital Representation Elections, Industrial Relations, 20, pp. 149-161, Spring 1981. C. R. Greer and J. C. Shearer, Foreign Ownership Effects on NLRB Representation Elections, Journal of International Business Studies, 12, pp. 9-23, Winter 1981. M. H. Sandver, South-Nonsouth Differentials in NRLB Certification Election Outcomes, Journal of Labor Research, 3:1, pp. 13-30, 1982. V. G. Devinatz and D. P. Rich, Representation Type and Union Success in Certification Elections, Journal of Labor Research, 14:1, pp. 85-92, 1993. H. G. Heneman and M. H. Sandver, Union Characteristics and Organizing Success, Journal of Labor Research 10:4, pp. 377-389, 1989. J. G. Getman, S. B. Goldberg, and J. B. Herman, Union Representation Elections: Law and Reality, Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1976. J. B. Dworkin and J. R. Fain, Success in Multiple Union Elections: Exclusive Jurisdiction vs. Competition, Journal of Labor Research, 10:1, pp. 91-101, 1989. M. Roomkin and R. Block, Case Processing Time and the Outcome of Representation Elections: Some Empirical Evidence, University of Illinois Law Review 5, pp. 75-91, 1981.