10.2190/H9W3-MXDQ-GEVV-YYA8 H9W3MXDQGEVVYYA8 3 Estimation of Crop Acreage Flexibility Restraints for Evaluating on-Farm Alcohol Fuel Production in California 37 44 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 H9W3MXDQGEVVYYA8.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=H9W3MXDQGEVVYYA8 1 Mark Meo Division of Environmental Studies and Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California, Davis <p>Crop acreage shifts brought about by on-farm alcohol fuel production will be constrained by factors other than the capacity of the distillery in the demand for alcohol fuel; institutional, marketing, machinery and price uncertainty also delimit the magnitude of crop acreage responses to changes in demand. This research was conducted to estimate flexibility constraints for the major crops grown in Yolo County, California for use in a linear programming optimization model constructed to evaluate the energetic and economic feasibility of on-farm alcohol fuel production.</p><p>The pertinent literature was reviewed, with respect to research in the use of energy in the agricultural sector. Two alternative estimating models were developed based upon published work undertaken on the Texas High Plains and subsequently applied to Yolo County crop production data.</p><p>Both models were formulated as simple linear regression equations in which either the current year's acreage or the previous three years' average is expressed as a function of last year's acreage or the previous three years' average acreage, respectively. The results were evaluated with conventional statistical measures, a model was selected, and acreage changes calculated.</p> Solar Energy Research Institute, <i>Ethanol Fuels: Use, Production, and Economics</i>, Golden, Colorado, 1981. U. S. Congress, <i>Energy From Biological Processes</i>, Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, D. C., Vols. I and II, 1980. U. S. National Alcohol Fuels Commission, <i>Fuel Alcohol, An Energy Alternative for the 1980s</i>, Washington, D. C., 1981. D. Dvoskin, E. O. Heady, and B. C. English, <i>Energy Use in the U. S. Agriculture: An Evaluation of National and Regional Impacts from Alternative Energy Policies</i>, CARD Report 78, Iowa State University, 1978. B. C. English, C. C. Short, E. O. Heady, and S. K. Johnson, <i>Economic Feasibility of Using Crop Residues to Generate Electricity in Iowa</i>, CARD Report 88, Iowa State University, 1980. R. H. Day, <i>Recursive Programming and Production Response</i>, North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, 1963. W. M. Schaller, A Natural Model of Agricultural Production Response, <i>Agricultural Economics Research, 20</i>, pp. 33-46, 1968. G. D. Condra and R. D. Lacewell, <i>Establishing Crop Acreage Flexibility Restraints for Subregions of the Texas High Plains</i>, Texas Water Resources Institute Technical Report No. 82, 1977. R. K. Sahi and W. J. Craddock, Estimation of Flexibility Coefficient for Recursive Programming Models - Alternative Approaches, <i>American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56</i>, pp. 344-350, 1974. J. M. Henderson, The Utilization of Agricultural Land: Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry, <i>Review of Economics and Statistics, 42</i>, pp. 242-249, 1959. T. A. Ryan, Jr., B. L. Joiner, and B. J. Ryan, <i>Minitab II</i>, Pennsylvania State University, 1980. J. Neter and W. Wasserman, <i>Applied Linear Statistical Models</i>, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1974.