10.2190/Q92G-RKCB-AJN9-5CWA Q92GRKCBAJN95CWA 4 The Diffusion of Crime in the Metropolis: A Step-By-Step Analysis 45 60 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 Q92GRKCBAJN95CWA.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=Q92GRKCBAJN95CWA 1 Meir Gross Simon Hakim Department of Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning, University of Massachusetts Department of Economics, Temple University <p>This paper presents a practical statistical approach to analyzing the causes of property crimes committed in suburban communities which differs from the common hypothesis-testing methodology of social scientists by integrating theoretical models with extensive data analysis. The method examines the first few samples establishing a qualitative assessment of the data, then it plots relationships between variables to arrive at various functional forms to be used in later modelling. Before constructing a regression model, simple bivariate correlations are checked to identify highly collinear variables and to exclude variables not deserving further investigation. Thus, the output of each stage in the analysis is the input to the next stage. The method attempts to understand "what the data are trying to tell us" <i>before</i> proceeding to multiple regression analyses.</p><p>The article concludes with a theoretically sound crime attraction model which explains the attraction of property crimes to suburban localities. The data base for the study was drawn from the New Jersey suburbs of Philadelphia.</p> W. Turkey, <i>Exploratory Data Analysis</i>, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, Massachusetts, 1977. J. P. Allison, Economic Factors and the Rate of Crime, <i>Land Economics, 48</i>:2, pp. 193-196, 1972. J. I. Chapman, An Economic Model of Crime and Police: Some Empirical Results, <i>Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 13</i>: 1, pp. 48-63, January 1976. K. Schuessler, et al., Sources of Variation in U. S. City Crime, 1950 and 1960, <i>Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 1</i>; pp. 127-148, 1964. G. S. Becker, Crime and Punishment - An Economic Approach, <i>Journal of Political Economy, 76</i>, pp. 169-217, 1968. T. A. Reppetto, Crime Prevention and the Displacement Phenomenon, <i>Crime and Delinquency, 22</i>:2, pp. 166-177, April 1976. J. M. Chaiken, et al., <i>The Impact of Police Activity on Crime: Robberies in the New York City Subway System</i>, Rand Institute, 1974. L. A. Hunt, et al., The Impact of Juvenile Curfew Suppression and Displacement in Patterns of Juvenile Offenses, <i>Journal of Police Science and Administration, 5</i>:4, pp. 707-712, 1977. S. L. Mehay, Interjurisdictional Spillover of Urban Police Service, <i>Southern Economic Journal, 43</i>:3, pp. 1352-1359, 1977. R. Fabrikant, The Distribution of Criminal Offenses in an Urban Environment: A Spatial Analysis of Criminal Spillovers and of Juvenile Offenders, <i>American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 38</i>:1, pp. 31-47, January 1979. G. C. Chow, Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions, <i>Econometrics, 23</i>, pp. 591-605, 1960. E. Kuh, <i>Capital Stock Growth, A Micro-Economic Approach</i>, North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, 1963. B. H. Booms, City Governmental Form and Public Expenditures Levels, <i>National Tax Journal, 19</i>, pp. 187-199, 1966.