10.2190/YHUT-NEGJ-D0RM-M4R7 YHUTNEGJD0RMM4R7 1 Probabilistic Models for Calculating Air Pollution Damage 111 131 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 YHUTNEGJD0RMM4R7.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=YHUTNEGJD0RMM4R7 2 Seymour Schwartz Division of Environmental Studies, University of California, Davis A decision process that weighs the real benefits of pollution-control-the reduced incidence of undesirable effects-against the costs of control requires the prediction of future damage. An alternative to a cost-benefit evaluation is the use of damage statistics which display the effects of pollution on different segments of the population. Probabilistic models are developed to yield both the expected value statistic for use in a cost-benefit evaluation and "percentage-frequency" relationships, which show the distribution of damage as well as the amount. The probabilistic response characteristic, which is the key to the transformation of air quality information to damage information, is introduced. Its construction is illustrated with actual eye irritation data. The submodels required for the complete damage calculation are identified and their interconnections shown. Time and geographical variations in pollutant concentration, as well as variability in human response to pollution, are accounted for in this model. Harold Wolozin, "Setting Criteria for Public Expenditures on Air Pollution Abatement: Theoretical Foundations and Limitations," in <i>The Economics of Air Pollution</i> ed. by Wolozin, H., W. W. Norton & Co., New York (1966) p. 168. Gerald A. Fleischer, "Capital Allocation Theory," Appleton-Century-Crofts, New York (1969) pp. 156-157. Seymour I. Schwartz, "Models for Decision-Making in Air Quality Management," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, August 1970. Lester B. Lave and Eugene P. Seskin, <i>Science</i>, <b>169</b>, 723-733 (August 21, 1970). California State Department of Public Health, "Technical Report of California Standards for Ambient Air Quality and Motor Vehicle Exhaust," Berkeley, 1960. Eric J. Cassell, <i>Law and Contemporary Problems</i>, <b>33</b>, 197-217 (1968). Mary Amdur, <i>J. Air Pollution Control Assoc.</i>, <b>19</b>, 638-643 (1969). E. A. Schuck, "Eye Irritation from Irradiated Auto Exhaust," Air Pollution Foundation, Los Angeles (1957). B. W. Lindgren, "Statistical Theory," 2nd ed., Macmillan, New York (1968). James McCarrol, et al., <i>Archives of Environmental Health</i>, <b>14</b> 178-184 (1967). S. K. Friedlander, <i>Environmental Science and Technology</i>, <b>2</b>, 1101-1108 (1968). Kenneth E. F. Watt, "Ecology and Resource Management," McGraw-Hill, New York (1968), p. 241. J. H. Dales, "Pollution, Property and Prices," University of Toronto Press, Toronto (1968). p. 103. National Air Pollution Control Administration (NAPCA), "Guidelines for the Development of Air Quality Standards and Implementation Plans," Washington, D. C. (1969).