10.2190/H0NC-4UH9-3DBC-460T H0NC4UH93DBC460T 2 Selection of Water-Supply Projects Under Drought 207 221 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 H0NC4UH93DBC460T.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=H0NC4UH93DBC460T 3 Mark A. Ridgley University of Hawaii, Manoa, Honolulu Proposed water-supply projects may be evaluated with respect to one or more objectives and in the context of one or more operating environments. Such evaluation is commonly considered a technical exercise and reserved for technical specialists. However, since preferences and judgment are required to identify and weigh relevant objectives and to assess the characteristics and likelihoods of different possible environments, project evaluation is unavoidably value-laden and thus should not be considered an exclusively technical enterprise. This article presents an approach to incorporating such values and judgments in the evaluation and selection of water-supply projects under drought conditions. The approach has two main parts. First, a multi-attribute value model is used to measure the attractiveness of candidate projects with respect to different objectives and scenarios regarding drought and water demand. The second part employs these measures in an optimization model to identify the correspondingly best set of projects. An example, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and integer programming for the two tasks, illustrates the procedure and demonstrates the dependence of the projects selected on the values and judgments used. D. Caplin and J. Kornbluth, Multiobjective Investment Planning under Uncertainty, <i>Omega, 3</i>(4), pp. 423-441, 1975. S. Gupta and J. Rosenhead, Robustness in Sequential Investment Decisions, <i>Management Science, 15</i>, pp. B18-B29, 1968. J. Rosenhead, M. Elton, and S. Gupta, Robustness and Optimality as Criteria for Strategic Decisions, <i>Operational Research Quarterly, 23</i>:4, pp. 413-432, 1973. Von Winterfeldt, D. and W. Edwards, <i>Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research</i>, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986. Department of Water Supply, <i>Upcountry Water System Improvements Master Plan</i>, County of Maui, Wailuku, Hawaii, n.a. B. Golden, P. Harker, and E. Wasil, <i>Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process</i>, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1989. P. Harker and L. Vargas, The Theory of Ratio Scale Estimation: Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process, <i>Management Science, 33</i>:11, pp. 1383-1403, 1987. T. L. Saaty, <i>The Analytic Hierarchy Process</i>, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1980. T. L. Saaty, <i>Decision Making for Leaders</i>, Lifetime Learning Publications, Belmont, California, 1982. T. Saaty and L. Vargas, <i>The Logic of Priorities</i>, Kluwer-Nijhoff, Boston, 1982. F. Zahedi, The Analytic Hierarchy Process—A Survey of the Method and Its Applications, <i>Interfaces, 16</i>:4, pp. 96-108, 1986. T. Saaty, Priorities in Systems with Feedbacks, <i>International Journal of Systems, Measurement, and Decisions, 1</i>(1), pp. 24-38, 1981. T. Saaty and M. Takizawa, Dependence and Independence: From Linear Hierarchies to Nonlinear Networks, <i>European Journal of Operational Research, 26</i>, pp. 229-237, 1986. T. Saaty, A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures, <i>Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15</i>, pp. 234-281, 1977. H. Wagner, <i>Principles of Operations Research</i>, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1975. T. Giambelluca, M. Nullet, M. Ridgley, P. Eyre, J. Moncur, and S. Price, <i>Drought in Hawaii</i>, Report R88, Division of Water Resource Management, Honolulu: Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources, December 1991.