10.2190/EJ57-WK5T-7BW2-2DQ6 EJ57WK5T7BW22DQ6 279 DEVELOPMENT OF A DYNAMIC AND PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTING (EF) 279 291 20021002 20021002 20021002 20021002 EJ57WK5T7BW22DQ6.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=EJ57WK5T7BW22DQ6 4 J. S. PANDEY S. KHAN V. JOSEPH R. N. SINGH National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), Nagpur, India Although a very useful tool, Ecological Footprint (EF) analysis has recently been subject to quite a bit of criticism. One of the most important weaknesses that EF suffers from is the fact that it is not a dynamic EF-model. An attempt has, therefore, been made in this article to develop a suitable dynamic EF-model. The dynamic EF-model, thus developed, can be used also for future predictions. A condition for future sustainability has also been derived and tested. Although the model development and analyses have been carried out for the rice-component only, they can likewise be extended for various other components. C. Folke, A. Jansson, J. Larson, and R. Costanza, Ecosystem Appropriation by Cities, Ambio, 26, pp. 167-172, 1997. J. C. J. M. van den Bergh and H. Verbruggen, Spatial Sustainability Trade and Indicators: An Evaluation of the 'Ecological Footprint,' Ecological Economics, 29, pp. 61-72, 1999. P. Khanna, J. S. Pandey, S. Khan, and F. J. Abidi, Regional Carrying Capacity Based Integrated Planning for Sustainable Development of Urban and Fringe Rural Areas in Sensitive Terrestrial Ecosystems, Journal of Rural Development, 17:3, pp. 495-509, 1998. M. Wackernagel and W. E. Rees, Conceptual and Structural Barriers to Investing in Natural Capital: Economics from an Ecological Footprint Perspective, Ecological Economics, 20, pp. 3-24, 1997. M. Wackernagel, L. Onisto, P. Bello, A. C. Linares, I. S. L. Falfan, J. M. Garcia, A. I. S. Gerrero, M. G. S. Guerrero, National Natural Capital Accounting with the Ecological Footprint Concept, Ecological Economics, 29, pp. 375-390, 1999. Economic Intelligence Service, Monthly Review of Indian Economics, Foreign Trade Statistics of India, CMIE, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, pp. 1-141, 1996. W. E. Rees and M. Wackernagel, Urban Ecological Footprints: Why Cities Cannot be Sustainable--and Why They are a Key to Sustainability, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 16, pp. 223-248, 1996. V. Singhal, Indian Agriculture, Indian Economic Data Research Centre, New Delhi, India, pp. 60-83, 1999. Economic Intelligence Service, Monthly Review of Indian Economics, Foreign Trade Statistics of India, CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy), p. 4, 1999. Statistical Abstract of India, Central Statistical Organization, Department of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, New Delhi, 1998. J. S. Pandey, R. Kumar, and V. S. Kulkarni, A Case Study of Terrestrial Ecosystem for Suggesting Modifications in the Carrying Capacity Studies, Journal of Indian Association for Environmental Management, 27, pp. 175-177, 2000. W. E. Rees and M. Wackernagel, Monetary Analysis: Turning a Blind Eye on Sustainability, Ecological Economics, 29, pp. 47-52, 1999. P. Khanna, V. S. Kulkarni, P. S. Dutt, J. S. Pandey, V. Joshi, and A. L. Aggarwal, An Approach to Carrying Capacity Based Developmental Planning Process, Journal of Indian Association for Environmental Management, 18, pp. 1-19, 1991.