10.2190/LAC8-J9JT-Q9K3-FMRB LAC8J9JTQ9K3FMRB 3 Modeling the Public Welfare Systems: Part I 277 285 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 LAC8J9JTQ9K3FMRB.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=LAC8J9JTQ9K3FMRB 4 Helman I. Stern Attia I. Sweillam Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York NYS Department of Social Services, Albany, New York The purpose of this study is to construct an analytical model of caseload dynamics to be employed in the projection of potential N.Y.S. Public Welfare cases. The term "welfare" is used in this study to mean Public Assistance. Public Assistance is disaggregated into five major categories. The model is composed of three major components. Markovian transition rates are determined for two of these components through an analysis of historical data compiled by the Department of Social Services. The components of the system are integrated into a set of difference equations to predict quarterly caseload distributions by category. In addition, the Markov Chain Model is used to analyze the static structure of caseload transitions within the welfare system. The model has been calibrated on three years of quarterly data from 1969 to 1971. The model was tested ex post facto for 1972. This validation procedure indicated mean absolute errors for individual categories and total welfare caseloads of 4. and .2 per cent, respectively. Since the closing part of the model introduced an appreciable portion of errors, further work is required. Part two extends the model to include a detailed methodology for forecasting the openings and closings portions of the model. The New York City Rand Institute, "Explaining and Predicting Changes in New York City's Welfare Caseload," WN-7850-NYC, July 1972. H. A. Morse, "Measuring the Potential of AFDC Families for Economic Independence," <i>Welfare in Review</i>, November, December 1968. State of Michigan, Department of Social Services, "Studies in Welfare Policy, The Employment of AFDC Recipients in Michigan," June 1972. W. W. Hudson, "Projecting Public Assistance Caseloads," George Warren Brown, School of Social Work, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, July 1, 1973. R. A. Howard, "Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes," Technology Press, Cambridge, Mass. and Willy, N. Y., 1959. H. I. Stern and A. I. Sweillam, "A Markov Chain Model for Predicting New York State Welfare Caseloads," 8th Annual ACM Urban Symposium, October 26, 1973. New York State Department of Social Services, Albany, New York, "Reasons for Opening and Closing—A Quarterly Summary," 1969-1971.