10.2190/MEY8-B9AF-E802-H5R8 MEY8B9AFE802H5R8 5 Modeling Total Vehicle Emissions on a Regional Level 65 80 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 MEY8B9AFE802H5R8.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=MEY8B9AFE802H5R8 1 Helman I. Stern Patrick A. Petrella Elmar R. Altwicker Division of Systems Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York Stone and Webster Engineering Corporation, Boston, Massachusetts Bio-Environmental Engineering Division, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model for the projection of total annual emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides from mobile sources in urban regions. The model consists of three subsystems, 1) vehicle population, 2) vehicle activity, 3) vehicle emissions rates. The model is applied through the use of four separate vehicle emission compliance schedules to the Albany-Schenectady-Troy Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), based on 1964-1970 data. Emission projections for the period 1971-1990 are shown in graphical form. Semi-annual Report by the Committee on Motor Vehicle Emissions of the National Academy of Sciences to the Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., January 1, 1972. New York State Department of Motor Vehicles, Research Library. C. T. Hare and K. J. Springer, Small engine emissions and their impact, <i>Automotive Engineering</i>, S. A. E., 80, No. 7, July 1972. Environmental News, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., Released Wednesday, June 30, 1971. E. W. Kentworthy, Auto makers win a delay of year on exhaust curbs, <i>New York Times Newspaper</i>, Vol. CXXII, No. 42,082, Thursday, April 12, 1973. <i>Federal Register</i>, Vol. 35, No. 219, Part II, Tuesday, November 10, 1970. M. L. Brubacher and J. C. Raymond, California Air Resources Board, A status report: California vehicle exhaust control, <i>J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc.</i>, 19, 224, 1969. J. M. Gall and D. A. Olds, Vehicle maintenance for low emissions—A customer education problem, <i>S. A. E. Paper</i>, #710070, January 1971. K. E. Wendell, J. E. Norco, and K. G. Croke, Emission prediction and control strategy: Evaluation of pollution from transportation systems, <i>J. Air Pollut. Contr. Assoc.</i>, 23, 91, 1973. J. R. Martinez, R. A. Nordsieck, and A. Q. Eschenroeder, <i>Env. Sci. & Techn.</i>, 7, 917, 1973. Details on the computer models may be found in a project report submitted by P. A. P. to the graduate faculty of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in partial fullfillment of the Master of Engineering degree requirements, July 1973.