10.2190/55HH-AP5Y-07RE-R94J 55HHAP5Y07RER94J 4 A Cost-Risk-Benefit Analysis of Toxic Substances 117 134 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 55HHAP5Y07RER94J.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=55HHAP5Y07RER94J 2 Dennis P. Tihansky Harold V. Kibby Economic Analysis Branch Ecological Studies and Technology, Assessment Branch, Washington Environmental Research Center, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Hundreds of new toxic substances are produced each year to satisfy consumer demand, but many of them also enter the environment as risks to the exposed population and to ecosystems. The most logical criterion for their control is a net comparison of all product gains and risk losses from using these substances, with the objective of maximizing the overall welfare of society. The operational framework presented here attempts to synthesize cost-benefit and risk information into a decision-making setting for the purpose of identifying the optimal control level. Both quantitative and qualitative value systems are merged into a single framework, and sequential stages of the analysis are outlined in detail. Several decision-making approaches are recommended, the appropriate choice depending upon the extent of risk-benefit data available as well as the preference for monetary versus non-monetary values. Uncertainty in the data base complicates the assessment since its inclusion requires the application of special statistical measures of confidence. R. C. Lind, The Analysis of Benefit-Risk Relationships: Unresolved Issues and Areas for Future Research, <i>Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision Making</i>, Colloquium Proceedings, The National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D. C., 1971. President's Science Advisory Committee, "<i>Chemicals and Health</i>," Report of the Panel of Chemicals and Health, Science and Technology Policy Office, National Science Foundation, Washington, D. C., 1973. C. D. Muehlhause, <i>Risk-Benefit Analysis in Decision-Making</i>, Department of the Environment, Ottawa, 1972. J. Griffith, The Role of Social Scientists in River Basin Planning: A Critique, <i>Journal of Environmental Systems</i>, 3: 131-152, 1973. D. J. Etzold, Benefit-Cost Analysis: An Integral Part of Environmental Decisioning, <i>Journal of Environmental Systems</i>, 3: 253-256, 1973. B. Ostle, <i>Statistics in Research</i>, The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, 1963. S. Eilon and T. R. Fowkes, Sampling Procedures for Risk Simulation, <i>Operational Research Quarterly</i>, 24: 241-252, 1973. Battelle Memorial Institute (Columbus Laboratories), "Effects of Chemicals on Aquatic Life," Vol. 3, In <i>Water Quality Criteria Data Book</i>, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., 1971. M. Dragomiresou, An Algorithm for the Minimum-Risk Problem of Stochastic Programming, <i>Operations Research</i>, 20: 154-164, 1972. G. Provenzano, Risk-Benefit Analysis and the Economics of Heavy Metals Control, Proceedings of the Conference on <i>Heavy Metals in the Aquatic Environment</i>, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn., 1973. J. P. Acton, <i>Evaluating Public Programs to Save Lives: The Case of Heart Attacks</i>, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., 1973. M. J. Roberts, S. Oster, and M. Hanemann, <i>Study of the Measurement and Distribution of the Costs and Benefits of Water Pollution Control</i>, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., 1974. H. Raiffa, <i>Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Making Choices under Uncertainty</i>, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass., 1968. R. Stone and H. Friedland, Estuarine Clean Water Cost-Benefit Studies, Proceedings of the <i>Fifth International Water Pollution Research Conference</i>, San Francisco, Calif., 1970. J. Churg, E. C. Hammond, A. M. Langer, W. J. Nicholson, I. J. Selikoff, and Y. Suzuki, <i>Biological Effects of Asbestos</i>, Environmental Sciences Laboratory, Mount Sinai School of Medicine and the City University of New York, N. Y., 1973.