10.2190/XK1E-T0FT-RXNF-NFC5 XK1ET0FTRXNFNFC5 2 Modeling the Public Welfare System: Part 2 15 33 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 XK1ET0FTRXNFNFC5.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=XK1ET0FTRXNFNFC5 1 Attia I. Sweillam Helman I. Stern Long Island Research Institute, State University of New York at Stony Brook Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beersheva, Israel A previous paper of the authors presented a pure markov chain model to forecast New York State public welfare cases. The model is comprised of three major components: transferred cases, closed cases, and opened cases. It was found that the opening and closing portions of the model contributed the majority of the forecasting error. This report compares the previous approach to a modified markov model with opening and closings determined by measures of policy change (version 1) or by linear regression on socio-economic and demographic factors (version 2). In this model, intercase transfer rates are conditional upon openings and closings. A validation procedure selected the modified model (version 1) to forecast total caseloads. The forecasts indicated mean absolute per cent errors for individual welfare categories and total caseloads of: 1.9 and 0.65 (1972), 1.3 and 1.0 (1973), respectively. The errors are well below the five per cent level required for departmental budget preparations. The model may be implemented with internally generated data. H. I. Stern and A. I. Sweillam, Modeling the Public Welfare System: Part 1, <i>Journal of Environmental Systems, 3</i>:4, pp. 277-285, Winter, 1973. New York State Department of Social Services, Albany, New York, Monthly Statistical Report on Reasons for Opening (Closing) Public Assistance Cases, Forms DSS-848, DSS-881, 1962-1972. A. I. Sweillam, Modeling the Public Welfare System: A Public Welfare Caseload Forecasting Model, Ph.D. Thesis, Urban-Environmental Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, August, 1974. New York State Department of Health, Office of Biostatistics, Albany, New York. New York State Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics, New York State Population, Income and Employment, 1950-1972. New York State Department of Commerce, Quarterly Summary of Business Statistics, 1969-1972. H. H. Nie, D. H. Bent and H. Hyll, <i>Statistical Package for the Social Sciences</i>, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York, 1970.