10.2190/3J5N-U7TN-LN61-E2E6 3J5NU7TNLN61E2E6 6 Recent Energy Models: A Review of Methodologies 279 292 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 3J5NU7TNLN61E2E6.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=3J5NU7TNLN61E2E6 3 David J. Edelman Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University In the wake of the oil crisis of late 1973, policy makers have become greatly concerned with energy issues, and have increasingly turned to analytical researchers to help them grapple with these complex problems. However, the modeling of socio-economic systems is far from perfected, and policy makers need to be aware of the limitations of the techniques used by their analysts. Consequently, this paper reviews the commonly used methodologies of optimization (linear programming), econometric methods, input-output analysis and system dynamics simulation with frequent reference to their applications to energy policy. A table of important recent work in energy modeling is included at the end of the paper.

M. Kennedy, An Economic Model of the World Oil Market, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 5:2, p. 548, 1974.

R. J. Deam, Short Run Programming of Oil Operations, The Proceedings of the VIIIth World Petroleum Conference, p. 269.

L. G. Brookes, Energy Modelling—A Book Review, Long Range Planning, 8:1, p. 98, 1975.

W. A. Vogely, Energy Modelling and Policy Making—a Review, Energy Modelling, IPC Business Press, Guilford Surrey, England, pp. 1-2, 1974.

D. W. Dreier, Advances in the Technology of Large-Scale Modelling, Energy Modelling, IPC Business Press, Guilford Surrey, England, pp. 118-123, 1974.

J. Thomas, The Energy Equations: Models as an Aid to Policy Making, New Scientist, 62:884, p. 341, 1974.

R. J. Deam, A World Energy Model, The Energy Question: An International Failure in Policy, E. W. Erickson and L. Waverman, (eds.), University of Toronto Press, Toronto, I, p. 337, 1975.

Energy Research Unit of Queen Mary College, London, World Energy Modelling: The Development of Western European Oil Prices, Energy Policy, 1:1, pp. 21-34, 1973.

Energy Research Unit, Queen Mary College, London, World Energy Modelling, Parts 1 and 2, Energy Modelling, IPC Business Press, Guilford Surrey, England, pp. 70-117, 1974.

E. P. Holland and R. W. Gillespie, Experiments on a Simulated Underdeveloped Economy: Development Plans and Balance-of-Payment Policies, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, p. 205, 1963.

M. Kennedy, An Economic Model of the World Oil Market, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 5:2, pp. 540-577, 1974.

A. G. Wilson, Urban and Regional Models in Geography and Planning, John Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 118-121, 1974.

A. G. Wilson, Urban and Regional Models in Geography and Planning, John Wiley and Sons, New York, p. 176, 1974.

R. S. Pindyck, The Econometrics of U. S. Natural Gas and Oil Markets, Energy Modelling, IPC Business Press, Guilford Surrey, England, pp. 124-133, 1974.

P. W. MacAvoy and R. S. Pindyck, An Econometric Model of Natural Gas, Sloan School of Management (MIT) Working Paper No. 635-72, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1972.

P. W. MacAvoy and R. S. Pindyck, Alternative Regulatory Policies for Dealing with the Natural Gas Shortage, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4:2, pp. 454-498, 1973.

A. P. Carter, Applications of Input-Output Analysis to Energy Problems, Science, 784:4134, p. 325, 1974.

A. P. Carter, Energy, Environment and Economic Growth, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 5:2, pp. 578-592, 1974.

W. A. Reardon, Input-Output Analysis of U. S. Energy Consumption, Energy Modelling, M. F. Searl, (ed.), Resources for the Future, Washington, D. C., pp. 25-44, 1973.

E. A. Hudson and D. W. Jorgenson, U. S. Energy Policy and Economic Growth, 1975-2000, The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 5:2, pp. 461-514, 1974.

W. Leontief, Input-Output Economics, Oxford University Press, New York, p. 134, 1966.

J. W. Forrester, Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems, Technology Review, 73:3, p. 53, 1971.

J. W. Forrester, World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, p. 14, 1971.

J. W. Forrester, Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems, Technology Review, 73:3, p. 55, 1971.

T. W. Derlemans, M. J. J. Tellings and H. deVries, World Dynamics: Social Feedback May Give Hope for the Future, Nature, 238:5362, pp. 251-252, 1972.

M. H. Rothkopf, An Economic Model of World Energy 1900-2020, Long Range Planning, 6:2, pp. 43-51, 1973.

M. H. Rothkopf and H. deVries, Modeling Future Energy Supply, Energy: From Surplus to Scarcity, K. A. D. Inglis, (ed.), John Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 105-121, 1974.

J. W. Forrester, World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1971.

D. H. Meadows, et al., The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Potomac Associates, Washington, D. C., 1972.

M. D. Mesarovíc and E. Pestel, Mankind at the Turning Point: The Second Report to the Club of Rome, E. F. Dutton, Readers' Digest Press, 1974.

D. C. White, Energy, the Economy and the Environment, Technology Review, 74:1, pp. 22-31, 1971.

M. L. Baughman, A Model for Energy—Environmental Systems Analyses: Structure and Uses, Energy Modelling, IPC Business Press, Guilford Surrey, England, pp. 134-149, 1974.

M. L. Baughman, Dynamic Energy System Modeling: Interfuel Competition, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia, 1972.

D. C. White, Energy, the Economy and the Environment, Technology Review, 74:1, p. 31, 1971.