10.2190/A471-2K64-PPLX-XQHP A4712K64PPLXXQHP 4 Computer Modeling for the Lake Tahoe Basin: Impacts of Extreme Land-Use Policies on Key Environmental Variables 39 56 20020509 20020509 20020509 20020509 A4712K64PPLXXQHP.pdf http://baywood.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=A4712K64PPLXXQHP 1 Barbara A. Sloane Thomas E. Dickinson Tahoe Research Group, University of California, Davis Agricultural Economics, California State University, Chico <p>A socio-economic System Dynamics model of population growth and land-use in the Tahoe basin was developed utilizing the best available statistical data and incorporating citizens' hypotheses (perceptions of reality). Citizens and planners participated in two series of modeling workshops.</p><p>Computer simulation runs were made of seven extreme land-use policy packages. Each policy package was simulated using three different model versions developed in the modeling workshops.</p><p>The projections show that the number of acres developed (and the related lake water clarity reduction) would be greater with upzoning policies, such as density variances, than with outright stimulatory ones, such as new industry promotion. The impacts of the different policies upon population growth (and thus air clarity) vary radically with different sets of citizens hypotheses regarding tourism. The results indicate that consideration of various hypotheses of system behavior is critical in land-use planning.</p> Economics Research Associates, <i>Housing Element Update, Lake Tahoe Region</i>, Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, 157 pp., 1973. C. R. Goldman and E. de Amezaga, Primary Productivity of the Littoral Zone of Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, <i>Symp. Biol. Hung., 15</i>, pp. 49-62, 1975. California Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, <i>Regional Plan</i>, C. T. R. P. A., 94 pp., 1975. B. A. Sloane and T. E. Dickinson, <i>Socio-Economic Comparison of Tahoe Basin Land-Use Policy Alternatives</i>, Tahoe Research Group, University of California, Davis, 112 pp., 1977. J. W. Forrester, <i>Industrial Dynamics</i>, The M. I. T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 464 pp., 1961. M. Greenberger, M. A. Crenson and B. L. Crissey, <i>Models in the Policy Process</i>, Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 355 pp., 1976. T. E. Dickinson and S. I. Schwartz, Socio-Economic Impacts of Rural Land-Use Control: A Simulation Study, <i>Journal of Environmental Systems</i>, pp. 279-297, Winter 1974. D. B. Lee, Jr., Requiem for Large-Scale Models, <i>AIP Journal</i>, pp. 163-178, May 1973. Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, <i>Transportation Systems Planning Process Study Design and Unified Work Program for the Tahoe Region</i>, T. R. P. A., 116 pp., 1973. Economics Research Associates, <i>Economic Analysis of Projected Growth for the Lake Tahoe Basin</i>, Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, 367 pp., 1971. M. A. Goldberg, <i>The Last of the Dinosaurs or the First of the Primates: Yet Another Simulation Study</i>, University of British Columbia, 32 pp., 1973. H. I. Stern, A Model for Population-Recreational Quality Interactions of a Fresh Water Site, <i>Socio-Econ. Plan. Sci., 7</i>, pp. 1-11, 1973. H. R. Hamilton, et al., <i>Systems Simulation for Regional Analysis: An Application to River-Basin Planning</i>, The M. I. T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 407 pp., 1969. C. R. Goldman and T. A. Cahill, Danger Signs for Tahoe's Future: The Continuing Decline in Air and Water Quality, <i>Cry California, 10</i>:2, pp. 30-35, 1975. T. A. Cahill, L. L. Ashbaugh, J. B. Barone, and P. J. Feeney, <i>Spatial Distribution of Primary Automotive Pollutants at Lake Tahoe</i>, Proceedings of Conference on Sierra Nevada Meteorology, South Lake Tahoe, California, pp. 23-33, June 19-21, 1978.