Computer Modeling for the Lake Tahoe Basin: Impacts of Extreme Land-Use Policies on Key Environmental Variables

Barbara A. Sloane
Thomas E. Dickinson

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DOI: 10.2190/A471-2K64-PPLX-XQHP

Abstract

A socio-economic System Dynamics model of population growth and land-use in the Tahoe basin was developed utilizing the best available statistical data and incorporating citizens' hypotheses (perceptions of reality). Citizens and planners participated in two series of modeling workshops.

Computer simulation runs were made of seven extreme land-use policy packages. Each policy package was simulated using three different model versions developed in the modeling workshops.

The projections show that the number of acres developed (and the related lake water clarity reduction) would be greater with upzoning policies, such as density variances, than with outright stimulatory ones, such as new industry promotion. The impacts of the different policies upon population growth (and thus air clarity) vary radically with different sets of citizens hypotheses regarding tourism. The results indicate that consideration of various hypotheses of system behavior is critical in land-use planning.

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